Running mates

Marc Blumenthal of National Journal has a piece today at MSNBC http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26269137/ on how hard it is to measure the impact of vice presidential running mates on the election. His analysis for the most part is correct: the impact of vice presidential running mates affects the decision of a smaller percentage of voters, approximately 25%, than expected. So he concludes that once the hoopla of the announcement itself, the convention, etc. dies out, it's really who's at the top of the ticket that decides the outcome of the election. However, since this year's election is so close, coming down to a couple of states, the 1/4 of the electorate who does pay attention to the bottom of the ticket may ultimately impact the outcome of the election more then we know. Look for Obama to make his announcement at the end of the week and McCain by the end of next week.