Senator John McCain stands a good chance of picking off several blue states in November. Here are some of the states McCain could win in 2008: New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Connecticut, Michigan, and Oregon. Now a lot will have to do with who McCain is running against, either Clinton or Obama, and it also may have to do with who McCain selects as a running mate. There are several intriguing possibilities but I would caution that McCain needs someone with executive experience rather than legislative to balance him out. Though it should be noted that I have included a couple of legislators in the mix below.
John Fund in his article this weekend in the "Wall Street Journal" mentions several potential choices for VP that could help the ticket. Fund mentions Tim Pawlenty as a VP candidate and notes that Pawlenty would give McCain a chance to win in Minnesota as well as Wisconsin which nearly went for Bush in 2004 (Kerry won by less than a half a percent). Some other candidates include Mitt Romney who would further strengthen the Western states such as New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada which have strong Morman populations as well as possibly bring in Michigan where he is tremendously popular, where the Democrats aren't, and where the Republicans also had a close call in 2004 (Kerry by 3%). Gordon Smith is another choice though there are reasons NOT to bring Smith into the equation. First off, he's considered squishy by a lot of conservatives. Secondly, he'd almost certainly be replaced by a Democrat in the Senate. The main reason to bring him onto the ticket would be to pull Oregon (4% Kerry in 2004) into the fold. Lastly, JC Watts is an intriguing choice. Watts is a likely VP candidate in only one scenario that makes sense. If the Clinton Super Delegates throw the election to her and Obama is not the VP candidate, then I could see adding Watts to the ticket. It is likely that this would have the effect of bringing out the African American vote against Clinton and in favor of Watts. This would probably be enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to the GOP. He might have a reverse effect in congress if the African American vote split their votes and voted Democrat. I did not include Huckabee in this scenario since he said on "Meet the Press" yesterday that he did not want to be VP. It's all or nothing. Gee, if I had a dollar every time a candidate said that I'd be rich! Stay tuned.
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As much as I like Huckabee, I will never understand why he would actually think that he still has a chance, going as far as to say that he will not take the VP spot on the ticket. I think he may be bluffing, and that he actually would run for VP; however, I do not think McCain has much interest in him. I think his complete lack of foreign policy would anger the Veteran supporters who support McCain because of his strong stance on Veteran's Affairs and the War. An African-American candidate would bring a whole new ball to the court if Hillary were nominated and our theories on how they vote would be put to an ultimate test. In my hometown, a black Republican ran against a white Democrat for a State Rep seat and overwhelmingly lost because most of the black vote went to the Democrat.
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