Wednesday, February 6, 2008

What is to be learned?

There are obvious lessons to be learned from Super Tuesday. The first lesson is that even though Senator Clinton "only won" eight states, her grassroots organization in most states is quite impressive and will be a formidable force to reckon with as the nomination process unfolds. Furthermore, Obama will have a hard time attracting Latinos and the elderly; two blocs firmly in Clinton's corner who love to vote. As for Obama, his 13 victories last night demostrate just how formidable he is winning from coast to coast, in the midwest, the south, and the northeast. He'll be favored as he goes into Washington state, Louisiana, and Nebraska on Saturday, and then the Potomac primaries on Tuesday. Over the next six contests Obama will be able to return to retail politics, as opposed to the "air wars" of Super Tuesday, where he'll fair much better. Obama raised $32 million in January and will match that figure in February. Obama has made inroads with white males but has thus far failed to capture the imagination of Latinos and women. Senator McCain cemented his front-runner status last night winning in all regions of the country, including ultra-conservative Oklahoma. However, he'll need to sure up the conservative vote before the general election in November if he wants to win the White House. Mitt Romney did win seven states last night but it was an obvious disappointment since he could not win any of the major states. Conservative voters just are not comfortable with the kind of "Johnny come lately" conservatism that Romney advocates, much to the chagrin of conservative talk radio. It cost Romney $1.16 million per delegate last night, which is not a wise investment considering the Mike Huckabee won 5 states, all in the south, spending less than $9 million during the process. Obviously, Huckabee's message of family, faith, and freedom resonates better in the south with the so called "Walmart Republicans", than Wall Street Republicans. The trick for Huckabee is how to make himself more than a regional candidate with no appeal outside of the south. The final lesson to be gleaned from the process is that so-called Super Tuesday worked much better for Republicans, who have their presumptive nominee as a result of their winner-take-all systems, as opposed to the proportional system the Democrats use. Technically, Obama won more delegates last night than Clinton but the drive-by media have all made it a point to broadcast that she won the night. Furthermore, all of those states who jumped up to make a difference as "king-maker", i.e., Florida, Michigan, etc., may now rue the day they did, since we're obviously going into March and possibly April to determine the Democrat nominee. Let the games begin!

1 comment:

Jeff Scott said...

Did you watch McCain's speech at CPAC?...what do you think about that?

I think it's about time he talks the talk, but at the same time he's never walked the walk. I like Ann Coulter's column this week on that. For all of the conservative things he said, he's still a liberal.

Here's the link to Coulter's column: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24882