A little someting for the kids

A little something for my students studying the front-loading problem in the presidential selection process.

Although the Super Tuesday of 2008 was the nearest equivalent to a national primary, the original Super Tuesday of 20 years ago was created with a much more regional focus in mind. In 1988, the Democrat National Committee devised Super Tuesday on the second Tuesday in March as a way of giving Southern States more clout in that party’s nominating process, and thus to combat the disproportionate influence of Iowa and New Hampshirein choosing nominees. Thus on March 8, 1988, voters in 12 southern states (joined also by voters in Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Missouri) all went to the voting booth on the same day. This “southern strategy” by DNC officials clearly backfired – instead of bringing clarity to the Democrat race, three candidates (Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and Jesse Jackson) each won five state primaries, essentially splitting the Democrat vote and thus blunting the South’s impact in the process.

Not to be outdone, the Republicans similarly began emphasizing Super Tuesday as a means of bringing earlier closure to their own nomination process. After deemphasizing the importance of Super Tuesday during the 1992 and 1996 election cycles, the DNC recommitted itself to the importance of Super Tuesday when it authorized11 states to hold primaries on March 7, 2000. (By then the Southern focus had been replaced by a primary day of a more national scope; Georgia was the only Southern state to still hold a contest that day). Unlike in 1988, the Super Tuesday contests held in 2000 had the effect of practically ending both party’s nomination contests, as Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore each scored knockout blows to grab a secure hold on their respective party’s nominations. (By sweeping California, New York and Ohio, Bush essentially ended the upstart McCain campaign in its tracks) Super Tuesday 2004 (then featuring contests in 9 states) had a similar impact on the Democrat nomination contest, catapulting Democrat John Kerry to a sizeable lead in the delegate count. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton were able to get a similar boost from the 2008 Super Tuesday contests.