Electoral math favors Democrats

According to Scott Rasmussen, pollster extraordinaire, if the presidential election were held today, the generic Democrat candidate would be poised to win 284 Electoral Votes. That's 14 more than the minimum needed to capture the White House. The Republican candidate could expect to win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the Toss-up category.

According to Rasmussen, "if leaners are not included in the totals, the Democrats lead 248 Electoral Votes to 189. To reach the magic number of 270 and win the election, the Democrat candidate would need to win 22 of the 101 Electoral Votes from states that are Toss-Ups or Lean modestly towards one party or the other". Here's how Rasmussen sees it today:

Balance of Power Calculator - Electoral College
Safe Republican 178
Likely Republican 11
Leans Republican 27
Toss-Up 38
Leans Democrat 36
Likely Democrat 94
Safe Democrat 154

These results are from the Rasmussen Reports 2008 Balance of Power Calculator and will be updated daily until Election Day. Obviously, Common Sense will not blog about the Electoral College daily, but Rasmussen's report gives you a good idea of where we stand today and the work that still needs to be done.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently projects 154 Electoral Votes as "Safely Democrat," 94 Electoral Votes as "Likely Democrat" and 36 Electoral Votes as "Leans Democrat."

On the other side of the aisle, 178 Electoral Votes are projected as "Safely Republican," 11 are projected as "Likely Republican" and 27 are projected as "Leans Republican."

Safely Democrat: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).

Likely Democrat: Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10).

Leans Democrat: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Ohio (20).

Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13).

Leans Republican: Florida (27)

Likely Republican: Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5)

Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), and Wyoming (3).

The South remains solidly Republican but the worry here is Ohio and its 20 electoral votes. Unless McCain can pick off Ohio or a combination of states that equals or exceeds 20 electoral votes, the Democrats will capture the White House.