Thursday, June 12, 2008

Obama leads McCain

Democrat hopeful Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain 47%-41% in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll. What's semi-interesting as a carryover from his nomination battle with Hillary Clinton is that white men and suburban women (mostly white) favor McCain over Obama by substantial margins. There's also a movement afoot that many of Clinton's supporters will vote for McCain in November. Of course, what is not factored into the aforementioned poll is the impact of either the Nader or Barr campaigns on the race. Furthermore, Obama has obviously received a "post-nomination" bump in the polls as a result of becoming the Democrat's nominee. What will be interesting to see is how many Democrats will support Obama in November.

In the electoral college matchup Obama leads McCain 241-231 with some 66 electoral votes up for grabs. When we say "leads" we're counting states that are solidly or lean for either candidate. This year's election will come down again to a handful of key states, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, etc. as they did in 2000 and 2004. The interesting thing here is that John McCain is already on the townhall circuit this evening at 7:00 p.m. on Fox News. Town halls, more so than straight debates, are McCain's strong suit. That's probably why Obama rejected McCain's invitation to hold 10 joint town hall meetings across the US.

It's been 2,466 days since there was terrorist attack on US soil. Good day and God Bless.

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