Friday, March 21, 2008

Can Clinton still win the nomination

John Zogby recently did of poll of Democrat superdelegates gauging whether or not Hillary Clinton can come back and win their party's nomination. Surprisingly, most said she could under three conditions. First, she needs to carry Pennsylvania by a wind margin. Presently, she leads Obama by double digits but that could all change by 22 April when the primary is set to take place. The idea here is that Clinton can demonstrate to the superdelegates that she can carry the big states, which will be key in November against Senator McCain. However, under the rules of proportional representation, it's almost impossible to win any state by an overwhelmingly percentage of the vote. Second, Clinton must overtake Obama in the popular vote. Obviously, it would be very difficult for any superdelegate to vote for Clinton should she be trailing Obama in the popular vote. However, her work is cut out for her though since there are few states remaining before the end of the nomination process on 10 June. Finally, Clinton needs some kind of break or event to dissuade the super elegates not to vote for Obama. Now Clinton has recently stressed that Obama is unfit to be president because of his inexperience, and that idea has gained some traction, but what has really hurt Obama is his lack of judgment as evidenced by the Rezco and Wright fiasco, which have turned voters against him. What may be Obama's saving grace is the fact that it is just about four weeks until the next primary in Pennsylvania, so he will have time to do damage control and perhaps right the ship before he loses any more ground. The bottom line is that in order for Clinton to win the Democrat nomination a lot will have to happen between now and August when they hold their convention.

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