Senator John McCain took a step closer to becoming the nominee of the Republican party by winning the Florida primary with 36% of the vote. It now looks like a two man race between McCain and Romney now that Rudy Giuliani will drop out of the race and endorse McCain tomorrow at the Reagan Library before the GOP debate. Giuliani put all of us eggs in the Florida primary avoiding traditional gatekeeper states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The "Mayor of America" had bad timing and a worse strategy thinking, like Al Gore did back in 1988, that he could insert himself well into the primary season and win the nomination. Unfortunately for Giuliani, he never learned that lesson. Furthermore, Giuliani never gave us a "big reason" why he should be the next president. Of course he ran on his record during 9/11 but that represents the past, not the future. In fact the one issue he ran on, namely strong national security and taking the offensive to Islamist fascists, was coopted by both McCain and Romney. What looked like a sure coronation in 2007 unraveled tonight in Florida.
As for McCain, he now becomes the presumptive front-runner going into Super Tuesday. Giuliani's endorsement and Huckabee's ability to attract conservatives, as long as he stays in the race, spells trouble for Romney. It's now Romney against the Republican field at this point. Romney will need to go back to the war room and figure out how he fends off McCain, Huckabee, and a defacto Giuliani. For McCain, while winning Florida is huge, there are weaknesses, namely, the lack of conservative votes. McCain does well among the elderly, veterans, liberal and moderate Republicans as well as independents. McCain needs to figure out how he woes conservatives on his way to the nomination and the general election. It's a long way from over but John McCain has taken a big step tonight towards the GOP nomination.
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