What to look for tomorrow night

Reuters, of all publications, has a nice piece out today about what to look for tomorrow night between McCain and Obama.

"Some of the earliest returns in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election could provide big clues about the outcome. Trends in the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain could become clear soon after the first polls begin to close at 6 p.m. EST in Indiana.

Obama and McCain are locked in a surprisingly tight duel in Indiana, a Midwestern state that has voted Republican in every White House race since 1964. A breakthrough win for Obama, or even a neck-and-neck struggle, would be an encouraging sign of broad strength for the senator from neighboring Illinois.

But if McCain appears to be cruising to a relatively easy win in Indiana it could signal trouble for Obama, who is challenging McCain in about a dozen states won in 2004 by Republican President George W. Bush. The first public sign of Democrat John Kerry's loss in 2004 came from a worse-than-expected 20-point blowout in Indiana.

"If Obama wins Indiana, the election is over," Democratic consultant Doug Schoen said. "Even if it's close, within 2 or 3 points, it probably suggests a big Obama win nationally. If it's more than 4 points for McCain, it's going to be wait and see for a while."

The next round of tests is at 7 p.m. EST when voting ends in Georgia, parts of Florida and the battleground state of Virginia -- another place where Democrats have not won a presidential vote since 1964 but have made gains in recent statewide races.

"If Obama wins Virginia by a decisive margin, it's a pretty strong suggestion he's going to win the election," Schoen said. "If McCain wins by more than a few points that could suggest movement toward him."

At 7:30 p.m. EST, polls close in the states of Ohio and North Carolina.

By 8 p.m. EST, all polls in Florida will be closed. Florida's 27 electoral votes and Ohio's 20 electoral votes are two of the biggest prizes still up for grabs on Tuesday.

The bottom line...MCCAIN MUST WIN THEM ALL."

There is only 1 day until the presidential election. There are 77 days left in the Bush presidency. And, it's been 7 years, 1 month, and 23 days since there's been a terrorist attack on US soil. Good day and God bless!

Happy Halloween

Here's the latest from Dick Morris about shifting support among the youth and the elderly. Apparently, McCain is quickly closing the gap. But will he have enough time? Catch more of what Morris has to say at www.dickmorris.com.

"A massive shift in younger and older voters is roiling the presidential race according to new data from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll concluded October 28-29. Younger voters -- under 45 -- once Obama's base, now are evenly divided between the two candidates. But voters over 65 have shifted sharply to the Democrat in the past week.

Voters under 45 supported Obama by 52-38 in the Fox News poll of October 21-22. But this week's survey indicates that they now break evenly with 45% supporting Obama and 46% backing McCain. On the other hand, voters 65 and over, who had backed Obama by 46-42 last week have now shifted decisively in his favor and he now leads McCain among seniors by 54-39. Middle aged voters -- aged 45-64 -- are largely unchanged in their views. Last week they backed Obama by 48-40 and this week they still support him by 48-43.

Overall, the Fox News survey shows McCain narrowing Obama's lead from 49-40 (9 points) to 47-44 (3 points) over the past week.

The shift in the attitudes of young people may be directly related to the tax issue, brought home by a McCain advertisement featuring Joe the Plumber. Younger voters, trying to make their way in their careers, are more sensitive to changes in taxes than older people, many of whom has retired from the labor force. By attacking Obama for wanting to "spread the wealth around", the McCain camp seems to have struck a nerve among those who are entering the most productive years of their employment history.

On the other hand, seniors may be more comfortable with Obama than they have been previously and might be more accepting of his candidacy. Obama's attacks on McCain over Social Security, always a sensitive topic for the elderly may also be hitting home driving seniors into the Democratic column.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey was conducted on October 28-29 and surveyed 924 likely voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points."

There are only 4 days until the presidential election. There are 80 days left in the Bush presidency. And, it's been 7 years, 1 month, and 20 days since there's been a terrorist attack on US soil. Good day and God bless!

Wednesday's musing

The Dow was up yesterday almost 890 points or 10.9% of its value...The Federal Reserve is expected to cut a key interest rate by another 1/2 point today...President Bush yesterday "ordered" banks to free up some of the bailout money for lenders. There's a fear that banks that received a sizeable portion of money as part of the "rescue" earlier this month are not loaning it, but rather, sitting on it...The nine largest banks in the US have received $125 billion of bailout money. In other words, the US government now owns shares in the nine largest banks. They key question here is, "when will the government sell its shares and divest itself"?...Senator McCain, even though he voted for the bailout, is now railing against it. Unfortunately for McCain, he had his chance to take a stand against the bailout but decided to vote with Senator Obama...The "spread the wealth" comment Senator Obama made to "Joe the Plumber" in Ohio earlier this month appears to be resonating in key battleground states...Many of Obama's internal polls show the race much closer than some of the traditional polls that have Obama ahead anywhere from 4-10 points...IBD "Investors Business Daily" has the race tied...From Ben Smith at http://www.politico.com/ "John McCain's campaign is demanding that the Los Angeles Times release a video of a party for a prominent Palestinian activist that Barack Obama attended in 2003. The Times described the going-away party for former University of Chicago professor, and Obama friend, Rashid Khalidi, in a story in April. The story reported that Palestinians thought they might have a friend in Obama because of his friendships in that community, despite the fact that his positions have never been particularly pro-Palestinian"...Answer: $250K, $200K, or $150K? Question: "At what income level will Senator Barack Obama raise you taxes? Obama's plan calls for 95% of Amercians to receive a tax break. Moreover, if you make less than $250K, you won't see an increase in your taxes. Last week that number dropped to $200K. Now Joe Biden says that anyone making less than $150K won't get a tax increase. Senaotrs, which figure is correct?...President Sarkozy of France called Obama's and the Democrats' position on Iran as "immature"...According to a Roll Call poll, Democrat Congressman Jim Marshall leads his Republican challenger, Rick Goddard, 49%-45%. It's a close race and certainly within the margin of error. Marshall outpolls Goddard among African-Americans 9-1, but Goddard is ahead 2-1 among white voters. Of course, the election will turn on how heavy turnout is in Houston County. Read more about this story at http://www.macon.com/. If Obama wins the White House and allows the Bush tax cuts to expire, which they will in 2010, the average household will pay an additional $2500.00 in taxes to the federal government. This begs the question: Will the Obama "tax cuts" offset the tax increase?

There are only 6 days until the presidential election. There are 82 days left in the Bush presidency. And, it's been 7 years, 1 month, and 18 days since there's been a terrorist attack on US soil. Good day and God bless!